Annan the attention will throw returns to the Delicious Wind Goose live broadcast. 安南将注意力投回到美味风鹅的直播中。 Obviously...... was only an evening, they three status have completely exposed. 很显然……只是过了一个晚上,他们三个的身份就已经完全暴露了。 Although he has obtained according to the inference, the key of this game is „instigation”. 虽然他已经根据推理得出,这个游戏的关键在于“煽动”。 In other words , gets others into trouble. 换言之,就是拖人下水。 Then their victory conditions, no longer are hide the identity......, but, induces others also to start to kill people through various methods and spoken languages. 那么他们的胜利条件,就不再是隐藏身份……而是通过各种手段与言语、劝诱他人也开始杀人。 But the core difficulty of this game, does not lie in the words technique. 但这个游戏的核心难点,并不在于话术。 But is „time”. 而在于“时间”。 In each stage, only then less than five minutes of ponder time. The quality common ritual participant, is not possible in each wheel makes the decision immediately- they have certainly some type „inertia”. 在每个阶段中,只有不到五分钟的思考时间。素质一般的仪式参与者,是不可能在每轮中即时作出决策的-他们一定具有某种“惯性”。 Also is almost all people will adopt „without touching some point, the decision maintains invariably” passive response strategy. 也即是几乎所有人都会采取“在没有触及到某个点时,决策维持不变”的钝性反应策略。 Meanwhile, because the public exchange time is insufficient, therefore „use logic perfect inference lets others believe” gain the right to speak method, is almost impossible to complete. 与此同时,因为公共交流时间不足,所以“使用逻辑完善的推理来让他人信服”的获取话语权手段,就几乎不可能完成。 Under this condition, the person will favor the by instinct makes the decision. 在这种条件下,人会倾向于以本能作出决定。 So long as in other words , lets their perception to the sense of urgency. 反过来说,只要让他们感知到紧迫感。 Decides all 【Switch】 Will be pressed down. 决定一切的【开关】就会被按下。 Annan narrows the eye slightly. 安南微微眯起眼睛。 Discussed the possibility of opposite party behavior on the logical level, on the humane level pondered the rationality that opposite party behavior, will have errors. To grasp others 's behavior pattern in advance, must first determine the behavior strategy of opposite party. 无论是在逻辑层讨论对方行为的可能性,还是在人性层思考对方行为的合理性,都会有所错漏。想要预先把握他人的行为模式,首先就要确定对方的行为策略。 If not know that the opposite party wants anything, is impossible to guess correctly how the opposite party wants to do. 如果不知道对方想要什么,就不可能猜到对方想怎么做。 „...... Does not know when Delicious Wind Goose can detect here.” “……就是不知道,美味风鹅什么时候能察觉到这里。” This game and board games biggest difference, lay in it will really cause the death. 这个游戏与桌游最大的不同之处,就在于它真的会导致死亡。 Although this is only the nightmare. 尽管这只是噩梦。 But the nightmare is abstraction of historical record- it definitely has with the reality different places, however its prototype story, at least has definitely happened in the reality one time. 但噩梦是历史记录的抽象化-它肯定有与现实不同的地方,然而它的原型故事、肯定在现实中至少发生过一次。 „-, once the success or failure that when plays will decide when own life and death, everyone in calm, will adopt the relatively safe and conservative strategy. “-一旦当游戏的成败会决定自己的生死时,每个人在冷静的时候,都会采取相对稳妥、保守的策略。 „-, only if first makes them lose the reason.” “-除非先让他们失去理智。” Longjing wrote in the barrage rapidly. 龙井茶在弹幕中飞速写道。 Although the success or failure of this game, or not has nothing to do with the status exposition. But they in the first night mutual dialogue, drastically will actually reduce the credibility that they said a word. 尽管这个游戏的成败,与身份暴露与否无关。但他们在第一天晚上的互相对话,却会大幅降低他们言语的可信度。 Without knowing to throw that who is eliminated, the passer-by definitely will first go out their ticket. 在不知道投谁出局的情况下,路人必然会优先把他们三个人票出去。 Because they happen to are three people. 因为他们正好是三人。 The game altogether continued for three days and four nights, removes first day that anything could not do daytime, happen to was three rounds. This means that the players can throw is just, and can only be three people. 游戏一共持续三天四夜,排除掉什么都做不了的第一天白天,正好是三个回合。这意味着,玩家们能投出去的刚好是、且只能是三人。 This is a critical point of equilibrium of dominant strategy. 这是一个支配性策略的临界均衡点。 So long as in first day has even if four person interconnections, may break this balanced. Because they can only project three people, in any event has a person to kill two people possibility that but will not be thrown. 只要第一天中有哪怕四个人互相联系,都可能会打破这种均衡。因为他们只能投出三人,无论如何都有一个人杀死两个人而不会被投出去的可能性。 „- You after all only then three people enter the game, first day also has not talked with the passer-by. This directly caused you to be isolated when the next day. The most proper approach is, when first day groups to talk...... the content with the stranger is not unimportant, the key point is ‚forming cliques’ splits up them, making them be suspicious of each other.” “-你们毕竟只有三个人进入游戏,第一天又没有与路人对话。这直接导致了你们在第二天时被孤立。最正确的做法是,在第一天的时候分组与陌生人对话……内容不重要,重点是‘拉帮结派’来分化他们,让他们互相猜忌。” Had grasped Longjing of rule fast, is teaching Delicious Wind Goose fast. 已经快速掌握了规则的龙井茶,快速教导着美味风鹅。 What a pity only then a Longjing person opened the live broadcast, otherwise Longjing felt oneself even can three operations, control them to complete the competition directly. 可惜只有龙井茶一人开了直播,不然龙井茶感觉自己甚至可以三线操作,直接操控他们完成比赛。 Considering that only then Delicious Wind Goose can see own words, but perhaps they were very difficult the exchange the opportunity......, even if Longjing had guessed correctly complete rule and tactic, he is still not actually able to guarantee the victory. 然而考虑到只有美味风鹅能看到自己的话,而他们恐怕很难有交流的机会了……即使龙井茶已经猜到了全部的规则与战术,他却依然无法确保胜利。 But the Delicious Wind Goose vision has strengthened. 但美味风鹅的目光已经坚定了下来。 He has understood. 他已经明白了。 He knows that oneself made the any mistake...... 他知道自己做错了什么…… And tries to make up. 并试图弥补。 Quick, the speech was one's turn Delicious Wind Goose. 很快,发言就轮到了美味风鹅。 The Dove beforehand speech is only atmospheric conditions just before a rain is muddy temporarily. But if he cannot make what speech reversing, the final answer is the three people are still thrown. 德芙之前的发言只是暂时把水搅浑。可如果他不能做出什么扭转性的发言,最后的答案依然是己方三人被投出去。 He silent flickered. 他沉默了一瞬。 Replied slowly: 缓缓答道: „- I am not civilians. “-我不是平民。 „ In first in round claimed that I am civilians, to protect the civilians in field was not killed. “在第一轮中声称我是平民,是为了保护场上的平民不被杀害。 „However my true status...... is Idol Sorcerer.” “而我真正的身份……是偶像巫师。” After Delicious Wind Goose this saying says, tranquil saying: „You , to throw me to be eliminated now, but such does not have the significance. The following person has not needed to speak, because the slayer has won now. The words that does not believe that listen to me to analyze-” 美味风鹅这话说出口后,平静的说道:“你们要是想要现在投我出局也可以,但那样毫无意义。后面的人也已经无需发言了,因为杀人者现在已经赢了。不相信的话,就听我分析-” He almost can expect, other person of surprised uncertain facial expressions. 他几乎就可以料想到,其他人惊疑不定的神情了。 „ If my round jumps, then I will use the skill tonight surely, I who am unable to defend will be killed immediately ; If I do not jump temporarily, then I definitely will be eliminated by the referendum tomorrow. “如果我这回合跳出去,那么我今晚就必定会使用技能,无法防守的我立刻就会被杀;而如果我暂时不跳出去,那么我明天必然会被公投出局。 „ Therefore to me, so long as does not jump definitely dead. Reason that this why I expose the status. “所以对我来说,只要不跳出来就肯定会死。这就是为什么我暴露身份的原因。 „ My only survival condition, is you chooses does not throw me to be eliminated temporarily, and I make a move to kill people and transform faction after evening's at nightfall immediately. This I ‚dying’, may want my respective faction to win even temporarily, I did not use. “我唯一的存活条件,就是你们选择暂时不投我出局,且我在晚上入夜后立刻出手杀人、转换阵营。这样就算我暂时‘死去’,可只要我所属的阵营获得胜利,我就不用死了。 „ Why I said that the slayer has won? “为什么我说杀人者已经赢了呢？ „ Condition is very simple, so long as kills my person and with yesterday's slayer tonight is not a person...... such, third day time will have two people achieved ‚killed two people’ the victory condition. But the good man side can only choose to project by that person that my highlight sections out. “条件很简单,只要今晚杀死我的人、与昨天的杀人者不是一人……那样的话,第三天的时候就会有两个人达成了‘杀害两人’的胜利条件。而善人方只能选择投出被我高亮标出的那一人。 „ Even if that the slayer no longer increases, still the victor will live surely is entering fourth day. Considering this matter, the winning percentage of evil person side has been bigger than 50- to transform faction promptly, can only make a move and attain when next evening the head/number of people. “那么就算杀人者不再增加,也必定会有一个胜利者活着进入第四天。考虑到这件事,恶人方的胜率已经大于50-那么想要及时转换阵营,就只能在第二天晚上时出手并拿到人头。 „This even if in the craziest third night, stays the defensive condition, to obtain wins finally. Without two people kills a person simultaneously, so long as ‚victor’ smooth hidden status, is surely condition of victory- that time half people have killed people, Edict Sorcerer and Prophecy Sorcerer skill is invalid, because they want to do, no longer is protects itself, but is hidden ‚victor’.” “这样哪怕在最疯狂的第三天晚上,也保持防守状态、取得最终胜利。只要没有两个人同时杀一个人,只要‘胜利者’顺利隐藏身份,就是必定胜利的条件-那时半数人都杀过人,敕令巫师和先知巫师的技能就已经无效了,因为他们想要做的,已经不再是保护自己、而是隐藏‘胜利者’。” Delicious Wind Goose by calm sound, methodical said the Devil deduction. 美味风鹅以沉稳的声音、有条不紊的说出恶魔般的推论。 Without a doubt. 毫无疑问。 He in reckless Bi. 他在胡逼。 Delicious Wind Goose does not know, will be eliminated the person dead and die after the settlement immediately finally ; Because „at least person of instance clearance condition that survives” is they as the player, the conditions of others not necessarily are this. 美味风鹅并不知道,淘汰出局的人是立刻死亡、还是在最终结算后才会死亡;因为“至少有一人存活”是他们作为玩家的副本通关条件,其他人的条件并不一定是这个。 He is betting. 他只是在赌一把。 Sits motionless will certainly die. 坐着不动就一定会死。 But if the smooth letting situation stirs muddily, that result is uncertain. 可如果顺利的让局势搅浑,那结果就不一定了。 „ If victor in the third night by manslaughter what to do? Very simple, so long as third night, everyone makes a move to kill people completely then. The person who if attains the head/number of people in the next day chooses the defense, may be attacked by many individuals in third day simultaneously, but the possibility of death. “如果胜利者在第三天晚上被误杀怎么办呢？很简单,只要第三天晚上,所有人全部出手杀人即可。如果在第二天中拿到人头的人选择防守,在第三天中也有可能被多个人同时攻击而死的可能性。 „...... As the matter stands, defends in third day to the winning percentage of attack is the same.” “……这样一来,在第三天中防守与进攻的胜率是一样的。” Naturally, this also talked nonsense. 当然,这也是扯淡。 Without a doubt, Delicious Wind Goose is really Prophecy Sorcerer, kills people, in third day to defend in the next day in the probability is the winning percentage biggest strategy. 毫无疑问,如果美味风鹅真的是先知巫师,那么在第二天中杀人、第三天中防守在概率上才是胜率最大的策略。 But who heard here...... also to care about this detail? 但听到这里了……谁还在乎这种细节呢？