The diplomacy stands in line also is sometimes very simple, since the English decides to support Chile, Peru and Bolivia can only seek the support to law Austria. 外交站队有时候也很简单,自从英国人决定支持智利后,秘鲁和玻利维亚两国就只能向法奥寻求支持。 The international trade is only the small issue, nowadays the mass of South American countries is very small, if not the rich resources, with the promoted currency hegemony need, the big powers will not pay attention to them. 国际贸易只是小问题,这年头南美各国的体量都很小,如果不是资源丰富,和推广货币霸权需要,列强根本就不会注意他们。 Looked that the population of various countries knew, Chilean about 2.2 million, Peru about 2.75 million, Bolivia have about 1.3 million. 看各国的人口数量就知道了,智利约有220万、秘鲁约有275万、玻利维亚约有130万。 Selects the person, is the agricultural countries, the prospect has the big domestic market obviously is not possible. 就这么点儿人,又都是农业国家,指望有多大的内部市场显然是不可能的。 Chile is relatively wealthy, by the niter exit|to speak, the military power is mainly most powerful in the three countries. 智利相对富裕,主要是靠硝石出口,军事实力在三国中最为强大。 Peru has the silver, what a pity these year of silver prices fall year by year, the wallet of Peruvian government is also withered. 秘鲁有白银,可惜这些年白银价格逐年下跌,秘鲁政府的钱包也在干瘪。 Bolivia can be said as most miserable, discovered with great difficulty the niter quarry, had on several years of auspicious day, the war broke out. 玻利维亚可以说是最惨,好不容易发现了了硝石矿,才过上几年好日子,战争就爆发了。 Without a doubt, the three countries are incapable of putting out the large amount of war funds all of a sudden, the loan are unavoidable. 毫无疑问,三国均无力一下子拿出巨额的战争经费,贷款是在所难免的。 The Vienna palace, Franz is examining and approving a special loan, the debtor put out the Atacama Desert minerals to make the mortgage naturally. 维也纳宫,弗朗茨就在审批一笔特殊的贷款,债务人非常大方的拿出了阿塔卡马沙漠矿产做抵押。 „Possibility that judging from the present situation, Peru and Bolivia won the war big?” “从目前的情况来看,秘鲁和玻利维亚赢得战争的可能性有多大？” Chief of the general staff Albrechtovich: „ The military power analysis from paper surface, the general staff acted according to three countries' the army quantities, weaponry, training, past score and logistics support capability and other factors to synthesize to conduct the quantitative analysis purely. 总参谋长阿尔布雷希特:“单纯从纸面上的军事实力分析,参谋部根据三国的军队数量、武器装备、训练情况、以往的战绩、后勤保障能力等因素综合起来进行了量化分析。 Three national troops fact strength are as follows: Bolivian 1, Peru 1.8, Chile 2.1. 三国军事实力分别是:玻利维亚一、秘鲁1.8、智利2.1。 Theoretically, Bolivia and Peru had the overwhelming superiority ; However the battlefield previous most of the time, is the Chilean army is pressing Peru and Bolivia now hits. 理论上,玻利维亚和秘鲁占据了绝对优势;然而战场上现在大多数时候,都是智利军队压着秘鲁和玻利维亚打。 Has Bolivia and Peru of strength superiority, but conducted the union in name, in the battlefield does not have the coordination, sometimes also holds back mutually. 拥有兵力优势的玻利维亚和秘鲁两国,只是名义上进行了联合,战场上毫无配合可言,有时候还互相扯后腿。 If Peru and coordinate question of Bolivian army is not solved, they can win the probability of this war is not over half. ” 如果秘鲁和玻利维亚军队的配合问题不解决,他们能够赢得这场战争的几率不会超过一半。” This is all the common problems of combined military operation, Bolivia , Peru and Chile take an oath the sovereignty to Atacama Desert. 这是所有联合作战的共同问题,玻利维亚、秘鲁、智利三国都对阿塔卡马沙漠宣誓主权。 Now Bolivia and Peru unite, was not equal to that the territorial dispute of two countries vanished, because of common enemy Chile, is forced to join up merely. 现在玻利维亚和秘鲁联合,并不等于两国的领土争议消失了,仅仅只是因为共同的敌人智利,才被迫联合起来的。 Under this background, in the battlefield held the knife to be normal mutually. 这种背景下,战场上相互捅刀子再正常不过了。 Franz: „ Told the Bolivian, our niter to Atacama Desert had no interest, making them put out other collateral. 弗朗茨:“告诉玻利维亚人,我们对阿塔卡马沙漠的硝石没兴趣,让他们拿出别的抵押品。 Without the appropriate collateral, can give us the domestic minerals mortgage, the gold/metal, silver, copper, iron, petroleum and natural gas can consider. ” 如果没有合适的抵押品,可以把国内的矿产抵押给我们,金、银、铜、铁、石油、天然气都可以考虑。” Did not favor Bolivia to win the war, did not hinder the Austria advantage to support Bolivia to conduct this war. Only „Bolivian Liviano” and aegis hook, was worth Austria Libyan Station behind them. 不看好玻利维亚赢得战争,也不妨碍奥地利支持玻利维亚进行这场战争。光“玻利维亚诺”和神盾挂钩,就值得奥地利站他们背后了。 If did not consider that the minerals of Atacama Desert, by the Chilean had been promised gave the English, Austria benefitted not to compete with John Bull in South America, Franz may first send for the circle place. 如果不是考虑到阿塔卡马沙漠的矿产,已经被智利人许诺给了英国人,奥地利在南美又竞争不过约翰牛,弗朗茨都有可能先派人过去圈地了。 Naturally, what is most essential is the benefit is insufficient. Although Atacama Desert is the world's largest niter quarry has the habitat, was not equal to other place does not have the niter quarry, moreover manual system niter. 当然,最关键的还是利益不够。尽管阿塔卡马沙漠是全球最大的硝石矿出产地,可不等于别的地方就没有硝石矿,况且还有人工制硝。 Originally Franz is prepares drawing Peru to embark, it is a pity that was forestalled by the French. Austria benefits the tentacle to penetrate the time of South America is too short, the influence was too weak. 本来弗朗茨是准备拉秘鲁上船的,遗憾的是被法国人抢了先。奥地利触手深入南美的时间太短,影响力还是太弱了。 If not because Chile and Peru first held the thigh of UK , France, Franz suspected that Bolivia not necessarily chose Austria to benefit. 如果不是因为智利和秘鲁抢先抱上了英法的大腿,弗朗茨怀疑玻利维亚都不一定选择奥地利。 First Lord of the Treasury Carl reminded: „ Your majesty, the Bolivian domestic precious metal ore, has mortgaged to give. 财政大臣卡尔提醒道:“陛下,玻利维亚国内贵金属矿,早就抵押给了出去。 Copper and iron these ordinary ores, although discovered much, has not actually developed the value. The petroleum and natural gas are the new energy industries, does Bolivia have is an unknown. 铜、铁这些普通矿虽然发现了不少,却没有开发价值。石油、天然气都是新能源产业,玻利维亚有没有都是一个未知数。 If must take these mortgage, the risk of loan will considerably increase, the domestic bank is not necessarily able to accept. ” 如果要拿这些抵押的话,贷款的风险性会大大增加,国内的银行未必会接受。” Franz awakened, the industrial strength of Bolivia is limited, the heavy industry not to mention, that is infinite approach in zero. 弗朗茨醒悟了过来,玻利维亚的工业实力有限,重工业更不用说,那是无限趋近于零。 Cannot smelt, the ore that develops must transport/fortune to sell, by the traffic condition of this age, these minerals naturally lost the economic value. 不能够就地冶炼,开发出来的矿石要运出去卖,以这个年代的交通情况,这些矿产自然丧失了经济价值。 The petroleum gas was needless saying that just started to use, the importance had not seen completely, naturally no one paid the big price to explore. 石油天然气自不用说,才刚刚开始利用,重要性完全没看到,自然没有人花大代价去勘探。 Calculated, Franz discovered that these thing short time really could not have used. Even in hundred years not necessarily are useful, ahead of time the layout talked nonsense completely. 盘算了一遍,弗朗茨发现这些东西短时间还真用不上。甚至百年内都不一定用得上,提前布局完全是扯淡。 Austria benefits has announced remains neutral in the war, this time provides the loan to Bolivia, naturally conducts with the folk commercial loan pattern, the government is an intermediary to collect performance of contract warranty costs. 奥地利已经宣布在战争中保持中立,这次向玻利维亚提供贷款,自然是以民间商业贷款模式进行,政府只是穿针引线收一笔合同履行担保费用。 By the current situation, the Bolivian government won the war is likely, meets on the step mostly the footsteps of original space and time, lost the war naturally not to have money to repay a debt. 以目前的情况来看,玻利维亚政府赢得战争的可能性非常小,多半会步上原时空的后尘,输了战争自然就没钱还债了。 If the collateral does not have the value, the folk bank will not be convinced. If the government reached an agreement the condition, finally without the bank is willing to loan, to be awkward? 如果抵押品没有价值,民间银行可不会买账。要是政府谈好了条件,最后没有银行肯放款,岂不是尴尬？ Awakened, Franz has not felt all right, immediately changes a statement: „Since the precious metal ore did not have, behind these things can only calculate the extra, making the Bolivian government put out other thing mortgage.” 醒悟了过来,弗朗茨没有丝毫不好意思,当即改了口:“既然贵金属矿没了,后面这些东西就只能算搭头,让玻利维亚政府拿出其它东西抵押。” Without the collateral? This is not possible. The good and evil is also a country, how possibly to have family property a little? Really is not good, does not have the land. 没有抵押品？这是不可能的。好歹也是一个国家,怎么可能没有一点儿家底呢？实在不行,不还有土地么。 „Repudiating a debt”, does not need to be worried. Now or in the 19 th century, matter of armed dunning had not only the same place. Only if Russia person that jumbo, the dunning cost is really high, everyone can only acknowledge that the punishment is deserved. “赖账”,更不用担心。现在还是19世纪,武装讨债的事情发生了都不只一起。除非是俄国人那种巨无霸,讨债成本实在是太高,大家只能认栽。 ...... …… Foreign minister Wessenberg: „Your majesty, we treaty of alliance with Russia person, only had three months to expire. The negotiator who the Tsar government has sent out, has arrived in Vienna.” 外交大臣韦森贝格:“陛下,我们同俄国人的盟约,只有三个月时间就到期了。沙皇政府已经派出的谈判代表,已经抵达维也纳。” Must come suddenly Austria Union, the Vienna government also to have wide divided opinions again time. Including Franz, midway several degrees vacillation standpoint. 要不要再来一次俄奥同盟,维也纳政府也是众说纷纭。包括弗朗茨,中途都几度动摇立场。 It is not everyone will is not firm, in the final analysis the benefit causes trouble. Continues to form an alliance, gives up the alliance, in this contains massive benefits. 不是大家意志不坚定,归根结底还是利益作祟。无论是继续结盟,还是放弃联盟,这里面都蕴含着大量的利益。 Passed through so many years, suddenly Austria two countries economy the essence has tied the arms in one. Austria benefits from Russia imports the industrial material, after processing the product, buys back Russian Empire. 经过了这么多年,俄奥两国经济已经实质上绑在了一起。奥地利从俄罗斯进口工业原材料,加工成产品后又返销俄罗斯帝国。 Since 1854, suddenly Austria both countries mutually were the most important economic partnerships. The peak, once occupied Austria to benefit 2/3 of foreign trade volume to the suddenly trade. 从1854年开始,俄奥两国就互为最重要的经济伙伴。巅峰时期,对俄贸易一度占据了奥地利对外贸易总额的三分之二。 As Austria benefits the rapid development of economy, Austria benefits the industry and commerce product unceasingly opens the new market, this number start of word drops year by year. 随着奥地利经济的飞速发展,奥地利工商业制品不断的开辟新市场,这个数字开始逐年下降。 Even to the present, is still Austria benefits a foreign trade most important part to the suddenly trade, occupied Austria to benefit 29.7 of total amount of import-export trade. 即便是到了现在,对俄贸易依然是奥地利对外贸易最重要的一环,占据了奥地利进出口贸易总额的29.7。 If not the Russia economy has not kept up with the rhythm, the domestic market growth is too slow, this proportion will be bigger. 如果不是俄国经济没有跟上节奏,国内市场增长速度太慢,这个比例还会更大。 Without a doubt, suddenly Austria Union made the important contributions to the two countries economic interaction, promoted the trade of two countries. 毫无疑问,俄奥同盟为两国经济交流做出了重要贡献,促进了两国的贸易往来。 Advantageous naturally also has the shortcoming, suddenly Austria Union also restricts the expansion that Austria benefitted. For example: Prussia in time of war, the Vienna government lost seized the chance to the opportunity that the Tsar government hit a person when he is down. 有利自然也有弊,俄奥同盟同样也制约了奥地利的扩张。比如说:普俄战争时期,维也纳政府就丧失了趁机对沙皇政府落井下石的机会。 The restriction further expands, this can only be the small issue. Continental Europe is not big, the expansion cannot expand many, instead troubles a big pile. 制约进一步扩张,这只能算是小问题。欧洲大陆又不大,扩张也扩张不了多少,反而麻烦一大堆。 Mainly was the international image issue, the Russia person draws the hatred. Existence of suddenly Austria Union, making the Austria advantage follow to share the pressure. 主要是国际形象问题,俄国人太拉仇恨了。俄奥同盟的存在,让奥地利跟着分担压力。 This makes the Vienna government that always excels at the flexible diplomacy timid and hesitant, the leeway that every so often even displays does not have. 这让一贯擅长灵活外交的维也纳政府束手束脚,很多时候连发挥的余地都没有。 The income in economy, is not white take, Austria benefits or the Russia person biggest creditor. 经济上的收益,也不是白拿的,奥地利还是俄国人最大的债主。 Lends money , the Tsar government credibility is not good. Often is unable to honor an agreement normally, but also reneges the debt that many Austria benefitted. 借钱也就罢了,偏偏沙皇政府信誉不好。时常无法正常履约,还赖掉了不少奥地利的债务。 Goes into debt, most does not draw the hatred absolutely. Austria benefits the financial circle is the firm Anti-Russia faction, the folk is not good to the Russia person impression. 欠债不还,绝对是最拉仇恨的。奥地利金融界都是坚定的反俄派,连带着民间对俄国人印象也不好。 In the agriculture, both countries are at the competitive condition. To the competitor of Russia person destruction market quotation, the farmers in Austria benefit for the nation abhor. 农业上,两国又处于竞争状态。对俄国人这个破坏市场行情的竞争者,奥地利国内的农民都是深恶痛绝。 Austria benefits the farmer to have the countryside farmer of right to speak, a large part of aristocrats. These people are the benefit victims of Alexander II big opening up wasteland policy, is hostile toward the Tsar government naturally. 奥地利农民可不是没有话语权的乡下农民,其中还有很大一部分贵族。这些人都是亚历山大二世大开荒政策的利益受害者,天然仇视沙皇政府。 Franz unemotional asking: „You think that the present, we have the supplementary contract can either?” 弗朗茨面无表情的问道:“你们觉得到了现在,我们还有续约的必要么？” The history seemed like repeated, because original space and time Second German Empire the agriculture rubbed, erupts the contradiction with the Russia person, Austria benefitted now is also similar. 历史似乎是重演了,原时空德二帝国因为农业摩擦,和俄国人爆发了矛盾,奥地利现在也差不多。 Naturally also has differently, Austria benefits besides the aristocrat and farmer Anti-Russia, because the financial circle the debt problem is also hostile toward the Russia person, supports domestic business circles that continues to renew a contract. 当然也有不一样的,奥地利除了贵族、农民反俄外,金融界因为债务问题也仇视俄国人,支持继续续约的只有国内的工商界。 Places similar position, Franz somewhat understood that original space and time William II alienated the Russia foreign policy. 身处类似的位置,弗朗茨有些理解原时空威廉二世疏远俄国的外交政策了。 In front of the benefit, is not the individual effort can make up, Emperor must consider that the standpoint of domestic populace, cannot oppose with most people. 利益面前,不是个人力量能够弥补的,皇帝也必须要考虑国内民众的立场,不能和大多数人作对。 Prime Minister Felix said pertinently: „Continues to renew a contract, economically a little affects, does not have the value strategically!” 费利克斯首相一针见血道:“继续续约,在经济上有点儿作用,战略上毫无价值！” Agriculture minister Horss: „ Economical value is not big, the present was the free trade time, the tariff advantage that we had did not exist. 农业大臣霍尔斯:“经济上的价值也不大,现在是自由贸易时代了,我们原本拥有的关税优势不复存在。 Even without suddenly Austria Union, most still on the purchase of reduced part of Tsar governments, has few impact. 即便是没有了俄奥同盟,最多也就减少一部分沙皇政府的采购,影响微乎其微。 Passed through so many years efforts, Russia industry many links must rely on us, even if the Tsar government wanted to kick out of the way us, must look at that they can bear this loss. ” 经过了这么多年的努力,俄国工业很多环节都必须要依赖我们,就算是沙皇政府想要踢开我们,也要看他们能不能承受这个损失。” This is the Vienna government's secure primary cause. Austria benefits the industry to be self-made, what uses with UK , France is the double standards, cannot be joined to the wrap/sets completely. 这是维也纳政府有恃无恐的主要原因。奥地利工业自成体系,和英法采用的是不同标准,完全配不上套。 The Russia industry was benefitted the influence by Austria from the beginning deeply, the capitalists seek after the small advantage, directly used Austria to benefit the standard. 俄国工业从一开始就深受奥地利影响,资本家们贪图便宜,直接采用了奥地利标准。 Adopting Austria benefits the standard is not anything, the key is the Russia industry has not formed the complete industry system, the mechanical device relies on imports from the Austria advantage. 采取奥地利标准不算啥,关键是俄国工业没有形成完整的产业体系,机械设备依赖于从奥地利进口。 Now must draw back, means that this inside overwhelming majority industrial equipment must discard, this loss is not the Tsar government can withstand. 现在要退出来,就意味着这里面绝大部分工业设备都要报废,这笔损失根本就不是沙皇政府能够承受的。