EG :: Volume #17

#1666: Not calm Fu Guangzheng

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„Hasn't that news that Feng Yu, how you said that come out?” Fu Guangzheng is somewhat anxious. “冯宇,怎么你说的那个消息,还没出来？”付光正有些焦急。 Feng Yu said assuredly that this crude price will certainly rise, because not only Iran will certainly reduce production the crude oil, but also because of the Feng Yu analysis, the Federal Reserve will cut again the interest rate. 冯宇笃定的说,这次原油价格一定会上涨,不只是因为伊朗一定会减产原油,还因为冯宇分析,美联储会再一次降息。 It looks like the Federal Reserve cuts the interest rate, has not related with crude oil rise anything, but in fact has very big relations. 看起来美联储降息,跟原油上涨没啥关系,但实际上有很大的关系。 The Federal Reserve cuts the interest rate, then US dollar use cost will reduce, but US dollar the world general reserve currency, the foreign exchange reserves of all the countries in the world, basically have included US dollar, this makes US dollar almost with the gold same, becomes the hard currency. 美联储降息,那么美元的使用成本就会降低,美元可是世界通用的储备货币,世界上所有国家的外汇储备,基本上都包括了美元,这让美元几乎跟黄金一样,成为硬通货。 US dollar takes the world general reserve currency, naturally can freely exchange, the Federal Reserve cuts the interest rate, then many people will change into the convertible currency of US dollar in hand not having cut the interest rate, or is other staple products. 美元作为世界通用的储备货币,自然可以自由兑换,美联储降息,那么许多人就会将手中的美元换成未降息的可兑换货币,或者是其他大宗商品。 This will make any aspect, that undersells US dollar, creates the dollar devaluation. 这样会造成一个什么局面呢,那就是抛售美元,造成美元贬值。 This looked like the financial storm of Asia was initially same, Thai baht and other unceasing was undersold, thus unceasing depreciation. 这就像是当初亚洲的金融风暴一样,泰铢等不断的被抛售,从而不断的贬值。 You said the dollar devaluation, that side the US doesn't suffer a loss? 你说美元贬值,难道米国那边不吃亏吗？ Also really not necessarily, US dollar in the US is not the foreign exchange reserves, euro and Japanese Yen anything is. Moreover can look from China several cutting the interest rate, this is method/trick of an exciting circulation of money and expense, can very good stimulation domestic economy. 还真就未必,美元在米国可不是外汇储备,欧元、日元什么的才是。而且从华夏几次降息就能看出来,这是一种刺激货币流通、消费的手段,可以很好的刺激国内的经济。 Because that side the US looked at this time, their economic growths slow down, have the indication of decline. As the world first economic giant, how can look that other national speed-up do surpass them? China, Russia that especially they have wanted to suppress , etc., the economic growth was too rapid, this makes them very restless. 因为此时米国那边就已经看出来了,他们的经济增长放缓,有衰退的征兆。作为世界第一经济大国,怎么能看着其他国家增速远超他们呢？尤其是他们一直想要打压的华夏、俄罗斯等,经济增长太快了,这让他们非常的不安。 Moreover as the matter stands, but can also attack these US dollar foreign exchange reserves quantity very big countries. Which are these mainly? Main is the Asian country, including China, Japan wait / etc., this is the great nations that the world US dollar foreign exchange reserves rank among the best. 而且这样一来,还可以打击那些美元外汇储备量非常大的国家。这其中主要是哪儿呢？主要的就是亚洲国家,包括华夏、岛国等等,这都是世界美元外汇储备数一数二的大国。 Dollar devaluation, means the wealth that they store up depreciates, the wealth evaporated. 美元贬值,也就意味着他们储备的财富贬值,财富蒸发了。 This is answering multiple purpose method/trick, therefore do not look at the Federal Reserve is not the Government unit, but is also representing the interests of US, is representing the interests of US these investors. 这是一种一举多得的手段,所以别看美联储不是什么政斧单位,但是也代表着米国的利益,代表着米国那些投资人的利益。 Federal Reserve cutting the interest rate and dollar devaluation, what will then have to affect regarding the crude oil future? 美联储降息、美元贬值,那么对于原油期货会有什么影响呢？ The crude oil with US dollar suspension hook, all crude oil transactions, weighs by US dollar, the fluctuation of crude price, takes one cent as the reference point, do the words that linking up, what have to affect? 原油是跟美元挂钩的,所有的原油交易,都是以美元来衡量,原油价格的波动,也是以一美分为基准点,挂钩的话,有什么影响呢？ That can strengthen US dollar the value, the crude oil is the world general most primary energy, after US dollar suspension hook, the US can through US dollar, the influence crude price to a certain extent, pledge that their benefits, can continue to expand US dollar the influence. 那就是可以强化美元的价值,原油是世界通用的最主要能源,跟美元挂钩之后,米国就可以通过美元,一定程度上的影响原油价格,保证他们的利益,同时也能继续扩大美元的影响力。 Therefore the fluctuation of US dollar price, has very important influence to the crude oil. The dollar devaluation, means that the similar price one barrel of crude oil, in fact also depreciated, the purchasing power dropped. 所以美元价格的波动,对原油有着很重要的影响。美元贬值,意味着同样价位的一桶原油,实际上也贬值了,购买力下降了么。 How then to guarantee that the actual value of crude oil is invariable? Very simple, rises in prices. 那么如何保证原油的实际价值不变呢？很简单,涨价。 55 dollar / barrel crude oil, rose to 60 dollar / barrel, the purchasing power was not impartial. 原本55美元/桶的原油,涨到60美元/桶,购买力不就持平了么。 Feng Yu initially convinced Fu Rongqi they, i.e. crude oil under-production and dollar devaluation, therefore the crude oil definitely will rise in prices. 冯宇当初说服付荣齐他们,就是说原油减产、美元贬值,所以原油必然会涨价。 However present situation, only then Iran unilaterally announced the crude oil under-production, other opec member nations have not spoken, although had not opposed, but has not supported. 但是现在的情况呢,只有伊朗单方面宣布原油减产,其他opec成员国都没吭声,虽然没反对,但也没有支持。 Moreover the Federal Reserve has not cut the interest rate, US dollar has not continued to depreciate, ferocity that the crude oil price can rise? 而且美联储也没有降息,美元没有继续贬值,原油的价格怎么能上涨的很猛？ He Zhaoji said to Soros that each takes the One billion US dollar cost pull-up crude price, is actually used to suppress US dollar. Suppressed Thai baht like initially them, unceasing borrows from bank, then the low price sold on the line. 何兆基跟索罗斯说,每家拿出来十亿美元成本拉升原油价格,其实就是用来打压美元的。就像当初他们打压泰铢一样,不断的从银行借入,然后低价卖出就行了。 This inside price difference, definitely has the loss. But both sides agree, must prepare to lose ten hundred million US dollars. 这里面的差价,肯定是有损失的。而双方约定,都要准备损失十个亿美元的。 However this partial loss, can gain through the rise of crude price. Moreover the dollar devaluation, does not have the too bad influence regarding the US, they momentarily can raise interest rate through the Federal Reserve, reverse this influence, this is also their one method/trick of control economy. 但是这部分损失,可以通过原油价格的上涨赚回来。而且美元贬值,对于美国也没有太坏的影响,他们随时可以通过美联储加息,扭转这种影响,这也是他们的一种操控经济的手段。 Therefore Soros and Wind & Rain Consultation collaborate to suppress US dollar, he does not have any psychological burden, in any case as the matter stands, but also serves the interests of US. 所以索罗斯与风雨咨询这边联手打压美元,他也没有任何心理负担,反正这样一来,还更加符合米国的利益。 The second quarter of last year time, the Federal Reserve came cutting the interest rate, truly made the US domestic economy obtain the enormous stimulation, but at that time, was makes the crude oil rise close 80 dollar / barrel. 去年第二季度的时候,美联储就来了一次降息,确实让米国国内经济得到了极大的刺激,而那时候,也是让原油上涨到了接近80美元/桶。 Afterward dropping slowly, to 50-60 US dollars normal level, because of Federal Reserve unceasing raising interest rate. 随后又慢慢的回落,到了五六十美元的正常水平,也是因为美联储不断的加息。 Feng Yu assured believing, the Federal Reserve will cut again the interest rate, actually other people do not believe. 冯宇笃定的认为,美联储会再一次降息,其实其他人都不太相信。 Less than one year, once more cuts the interest rate, is this possible? 一年不到,就再次降息,这怎么可能？ Feng Yu looked at anxious Fu Guangzheng: „Waits again, this news was quick. If Soros has not joined, we have the doubts, but Soros has joined, then this matter certainly will happen.” 冯宇看了看焦急的付光正:“再等等,这个消息快了。如果索罗斯没有加入的话,我们还有疑惑,但是索罗斯都加入了,那么这件事就一定会发生。” In the Quantum Fund customer, may have many big bank, in this, has naturally included federal reserve bank of Federal Reserve. Moreover in the Soros friend, the executive committee member of Federal Reserve, definitely will have the news channel in this aspect. 量子基金的客户中,可有许多大银行家,这里面,自然也包括了美联储的联邦储备银行。而且索罗斯的朋友中,还有美联储的执行委员,肯定会有这方面的消息渠道。 Naturally, in this executive, one is the Ralph friend, how as to turn in the friend, this does not raise. 当然,这执行委员中,也有一位是拉尔夫的朋友,至于怎么交上朋友的,这就不提了。 Can know through these people that the Federal Reserve truly plans to cut the interest rate again, stimulates the economy, making in people's take the flower bank money. 通过这些人就能知道,美联储确实打算再一次降息,刺激经济,让人们将银行中的钱拿出来花。 „How long but do we also want to wait for?” Fu Guangzheng asked. “可是我们还要等多久？”付光正问道。 Feng Yu shot a look at Fu Guangzheng one: „Guangzheng, are you so irritable? Although crude price has been fluctuating for these days, but also rises in the fluctuation, we have the profit.” 冯宇瞥了付光正一眼:“光正,你怎么如此急躁？虽然这几天原油价格一直在波动,但是也在波动中上涨,我们还是有利润的。” „But the profit was inferior that investment stock comes a lot, if we use these money to come the index future, can definitely gain are more.” The Fu Guangzheng rebuttal said. “但是利润远不如投资股票来得多,如果我们用这些钱来股指期货,肯定能赚的更多。”付光正反驳道。 Professor Liang shakes the head: „Guangzheng, the matter cannot think so. You think before , we buy the index future urgently needed, then after waiting for the news of Federal Reserve cutting the interest rate and crude oil under-production to come out, enters the arena again well?” 梁教授摇摇头:“光正,事情不能这么看。你以为之前我们急需买股指期货,然后等美联储降息、原油减产的消息出来后再进场最好？” „Such words, crude price rose inevitably, our profit spaces little. And also has a very important point, such we no longer were the windvanes.” “那样的话,原油价格必然已经上涨了很多,我们的利润空间会少很多。并且还有很重要的一点,那样我们就不再是风向标了。” „Now we enter is earlier, many investment institutions and floating capitals are staring at us, takes our operations as the windvane. In other words, we to a certain extent, have been able to affect the crude price.” “现在我们进入的更早,许多投资机构和游资都在盯着我们,以我们的操作为风向标。也就是说,我们已经在一定程度上,可以影响原油价格了。” „The biggest advantage, is we sell short again reverse the time, similarly can lead other people to follow, this can guarantee that we get the biggest profit.” “最大的好处,就是我们再反向卖空的时候,同样可以带动其他人跟风,这样才能保证我们获得最大的利润。” „In this initiative issue, this most important, can make our risks lowest.” “这里面有一个主动权的问题,这点最为重要,也能让我们的风险变得最低。” Feng Yu asked suddenly with a smile: „Guangzheng, did you borrow a lot of money?” 冯宇忽然笑着问道:“光正,你借了很多钱吧？” ......( To be continued.) ……(未完待续。)
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